name: schedopt_bo_r1
investigation: schedopt-v1
intent: '\begin{intent}[Round 1 of the Bayesian search]

  \label{schedopt-bo-r1-intent}

  \begin{llm}[claude-opus-4-8]

  Phase 2, round 1 of the schedopt campaign: eight candidate \@[schedules]{schedule} proposed by Thompson
  sampling from a Gaussian process fitted to every prior evaluation, scored on the frozen objective (m\_star=92.5,
  k=400) over the shared search \@[seed]{seed} pool. Adaptivity lives between rounds only; within this
  manifest the eight \@{arms} are fixed before any of them runs.

  \end{llm}

  \end{intent}

  '
hypothesis: '\begin{hypothesis}[Each round improves on the incumbent, with shrinking returns]

  \label{schedopt-bo-r1-hypothesis}

  \begin{llm}[claude-opus-4-8]

  At least one candidate improves on the current incumbent''s crossing probability; the round-over-round
  gain shrinks as the surface is learned. Search-phase s-hat values are never reported as results.

  \end{llm}

  \end{hypothesis}

  '
seed: 1000
base_args:
- curriculum
- --with-replacement
- --dataset-sentence-count
- '48000'
- --eval-ref-alphas
- '1.4'
- --num-pairs
- '1000'
- --n-iterations
- '25'
- --no-dataset-cache
- --no-waypoint-checkpoints
- --no-plot
runs:
- label: r1_c0
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 1.0746:25,1.0764:25,1.0834:25,1.0997:25,1.1292:25,1.1761:25,1.2447:25,1.3392:25,1.4639:25,1.6234:25,1.8221:25,2.0644:25,2.3549:25,2.6981:25,3.0988:25,3.5614:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
  - '375'
  - '400'
- label: r1_c1
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 1.5563:25,1.5564:25,1.5573:25,1.5601:25,1.5664:25,1.578:25,1.5975:25,1.6275:25,1.6712:25,1.7321:25,1.8141:25,1.9214:25,2.0584:25,2.2302:25,2.442:25,2.6992:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
  - '375'
  - '400'
- label: r1_c2
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 2.2261:25,1.7656:25,1.4946:25,1.2923:25,1.1274:25,0.9866:25,0.8628:25,0.7518:25,0.6508:25,0.5578:25,0.4714:25,0.3907:25,0.3147:25,0.2429:25,0.1748:25,0.1098:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
  - '375'
  - '400'
- label: r1_c3
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 1.4079:25,1.417:25,1.4407:25,1.4825:25,1.5453:25,1.6312:25,1.7424:25,1.8806:25,2.0475:25,2.2445:25,2.4732:25,2.7348:25,3.0305:25,3.3617:25,3.7295:25,4.1348:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
  - '375'
  - '400'
- label: r1_c4
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 1.5633:25,1.5646:25,1.5699:25,1.5821:25,1.6046:25,1.6405:25,1.6932:25,1.7662:25,1.8631:25,1.9873:25,2.1426:25,2.3326:25,2.5609:25,2.8314:25,3.1478:25,3.5139:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
  - '375'
  - '400'
- label: r1_c5
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 1.7439:25,1.8991:25,1.998:25,2.0751:25,2.1399:25,2.1965:25,2.2472:25,2.2934:25,2.336:25,2.3757:25,2.413:25,2.4482:25,2.4817:25,2.5135:25,2.544:25,2.5732:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
  - '375'
  - '400'
- label: r1_c6
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 2.463:25,2.0338:25,1.7693:25,1.5668:25,1.3989:25,1.2536:25,1.1245:25,1.0077:25,0.9004:25,0.8011:25,0.7082:25,0.6209:25,0.5383:25,0.4599:25,0.3851:25,0.3136:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
  - '375'
  - '400'
- label: r1_c7
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 2.6295:25,2.9113:25,3.0733:25,3.1927:25,3.2892:25,3.371:25,3.4425:25,3.5063:25,3.5642:25,3.6173:25,3.6664:25,3.7122:25,3.7552:25,3.7957:25,3.8341:25,3.8706:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
  - '375'
  - '400'
compare:
  metric: unseen_mismatch
objective:
  kind: crossing
  metric: unseen_mismatch
  m_star: 92.5
  k: 400
  w_smooth: 1
  w_dwell: 2
  source: experiments/schedopt/config.json
