name: schedopt_bo_r2
investigation: schedopt-v1
intent: '\begin{intent}[Round 2 of the Bayesian search]

  \label{schedopt-bo-r2-intent}

  \begin{llm}[claude-opus-4-8]

  Phase 2, round 2 of the schedopt campaign: eight candidate \@[schedules]{schedule} proposed by Thompson
  sampling from a Gaussian process fitted to every prior evaluation, scored on the frozen objective (m\_star=92.5,
  k=400) over the shared search \@[seed]{seed} pool. Adaptivity lives between rounds only; within this
  manifest the eight \@{arms} are fixed before any of them runs.

  \end{llm}

  \end{intent}

  '
hypothesis: '\begin{hypothesis}[Each round improves on the incumbent, with shrinking returns]

  \label{schedopt-bo-r2-hypothesis}

  \begin{llm}[claude-opus-4-8]

  At least one candidate improves on the current incumbent''s crossing probability; the round-over-round
  gain shrinks as the surface is learned. Search-phase s-hat values are never reported as results.

  \end{llm}

  \end{hypothesis}

  '
seed: 1000
base_args:
- curriculum
- --with-replacement
- --dataset-sentence-count
- '48000'
- --eval-ref-alphas
- '1.4'
- --num-pairs
- '1000'
- --n-iterations
- '25'
- --no-dataset-cache
- --no-waypoint-checkpoints
- --no-plot
runs:
- label: r2_c0
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 3.3144:25,3.3084:25,3.2908:25,3.2577:25,3.2058:25,3.1322:25,3.0342:25,2.9092:25,2.7552:25,2.5698:25,2.351:25,2.0969:25,1.8056:25,1.4751:25,1.1039:25,0.69:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
  - '375'
  - '400'
- label: r2_c1
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 2.0413:25,2.0413:25,2.0414:25,2.0416:25,2.0419:25,2.0426:25,2.0437:25,2.0455:25,2.048:25,2.0516:25,2.0564:25,2.0628:25,2.0709:25,2.0811:25,2.0936:25,2.1089:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
  - '375'
  - '400'
- label: r2_c2
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 1.2808:25,1.2648:25,1.2502:25,1.2363:25,1.223:25,1.2101:25,1.1974:25,1.185:25,1.1728:25,1.1608:25,1.149:25,1.1373:25,1.1257:25,1.1143:25,1.103:25,1.0917:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
  - '375'
  - '400'
- label: r2_c3
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 2.8037:25,2.7978:25,2.7808:25,2.7489:25,2.699:25,2.6285:25,2.5348:25,2.4157:25,2.269:25,2.0927:25,1.885:25,1.644:25,1.3679:25,1.0552:25,0.7042:25,0.3133:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
  - '375'
  - '400'
- label: r2_c4
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 1.5241:25,1.5177:25,1.5048:25,1.4854:25,1.4594:25,1.4269:25,1.3878:25,1.3421:25,1.2898:25,1.231:25,1.1655:25,1.0935:25,1.0148:25,0.9295:25,0.8376:25,0.739:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
  - '375'
  - '400'
- label: r2_c5
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 1.5358:25,1.5359:25,1.5365:25,1.5383:25,1.5425:25,1.5505:25,1.5639:25,1.5849:25,1.6157:25,1.659:25,1.7178:25,1.7952:25,1.8947:25,2.0202:25,2.1758:25,2.3656:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
  - '375'
  - '400'
- label: r2_c6
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 1.6149:25,1.6357:25,1.6729:25,1.7249:25,1.7909:25,1.8703:25,1.9626:25,2.0676:25,2.1848:25,2.314:25,2.455:25,2.6076:25,2.7716:25,2.9468:25,3.1332:25,3.3304:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
  - '375'
  - '400'
- label: r2_c7
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 1.5059:25,1.5148:25,1.5321:25,1.5575:25,1.5911:25,1.6327:25,1.6822:25,1.7396:25,1.8048:25,1.8779:25,1.9587:25,2.0472:25,2.1435:25,2.2474:25,2.359:25,2.4782:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
  - '375'
  - '400'
compare:
  metric: unseen_mismatch
objective:
  kind: crossing
  metric: unseen_mismatch
  m_star: 92.5
  k: 400
  w_smooth: 1
  w_dwell: 2
  source: experiments/schedopt/config.json
