name: schedopt_bo_r3
investigation: schedopt-v1
intent: '\begin{intent}[Round 3 of the Bayesian search]

  \label{schedopt-bo-r3-intent}

  \begin{llm}[claude-opus-4-8]

  Phase 2, round 3 of the schedopt campaign: eight candidate \@[schedules]{schedule} proposed by Thompson
  sampling from a Gaussian process fitted to every prior evaluation, scored on the frozen objective (m\_star=92.5,
  k=400) over the shared search \@[seed]{seed} pool. Adaptivity lives between rounds only; within this
  manifest the eight \@{arms} are fixed before any of them runs.

  \end{llm}

  \end{intent}

  '
hypothesis: '\begin{hypothesis}[Each round improves on the incumbent, with shrinking returns]

  \label{schedopt-bo-r3-hypothesis}

  \begin{llm}[claude-opus-4-8]

  At least one candidate improves on the current incumbent''s crossing probability; the round-over-round
  gain shrinks as the surface is learned. Search-phase s-hat values are never reported as results.

  \end{llm}

  \end{hypothesis}

  '
seed: 1000
base_args:
- curriculum
- --with-replacement
- --dataset-sentence-count
- '48000'
- --eval-ref-alphas
- '1.4'
- --num-pairs
- '1000'
- --n-iterations
- '25'
- --no-dataset-cache
- --no-waypoint-checkpoints
- --no-plot
runs:
- label: r3_c0
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 1.868:25,1.8736:25,1.8862:25,1.9064:25,1.9346:25,1.9711:25,2.0163:25,2.0704:25,2.1335:25,2.2059:25,2.2877:25,2.3792:25,2.4804:25,2.5914:25,2.7125:25,2.8437:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
  - '375'
  - '400'
- label: r3_c1
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 3.7417:25,3.7395:25,3.7306:25,3.7098:25,3.6717:25,3.6105:25,3.5205:25,3.3957:25,3.2299:25,3.0171:25,2.7509:25,2.425:25,2.0329:25,1.5681:25,1.024:25,0.3941:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
  - '375'
  - '400'
- label: r3_c2
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 3.2723:25,3.272:25,3.2701:25,3.2643:25,3.251:25,3.2257:25,3.1831:25,3.1166:25,3.0189:25,2.8816:25,2.6956:25,2.4507:25,2.1358:25,1.739:25,1.2475:25,0.6476:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
  - '375'
  - '400'
- label: r3_c3
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 1.2326:25,1.3231:25,1.4284:25,1.543:25,1.6647:25,1.7922:25,1.9247:25,2.0616:25,2.2023:25,2.3465:25,2.4939:25,2.6442:25,2.7974:25,2.953:25,3.1112:25,3.2716:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
  - '375'
  - '400'
- label: r3_c4
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 3.5999:25,3.5832:25,3.5451:25,3.4832:25,3.3957:25,3.2812:25,3.1388:25,2.9672:25,2.7658:25,2.5338:25,2.2704:25,1.975:25,1.6469:25,1.2858:25,0.8909:25,0.4619:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
  - '375'
  - '400'
- label: r3_c5
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 3.2007:25,3.1661:25,3.1038:25,3.016:25,2.904:25,2.7689:25,2.6113:25,2.4318:25,2.2309:25,2.009:25,1.7666:25,1.5038:25,1.221:25,0.9185:25,0.5965:25,0.2551:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
  - '375'
  - '400'
- label: r3_c6
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 1.6368:25,1.6549:25,1.6848:25,1.7249:25,1.7742:25,1.8322:25,1.8982:25,1.9719:25,2.0531:25,2.1415:25,2.2368:25,2.3388:25,2.4474:25,2.5625:25,2.6839:25,2.8114:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
  - '375'
  - '400'
- label: r3_c7
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 4.1789:25,4.1717:25,4.1509:25,4.1121:25,4.0516:25,3.966:25,3.8525:25,3.7082:25,3.5307:25,3.3176:25,3.0666:25,2.7755:25,2.4423:25,2.0649:25,1.6415:25,1.1702:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
  - '375'
  - '400'
compare:
  metric: unseen_mismatch
objective:
  kind: crossing
  metric: unseen_mismatch
  m_star: 92.5
  k: 400
  w_smooth: 1
  w_dwell: 2
  source: experiments/schedopt/config.json
