name: schedopt_bo_r4
investigation: schedopt-v1
intent: '\begin{intent}[Round 4 of the Bayesian search]

  \label{schedopt-bo-r4-intent}

  \begin{llm}[claude-opus-4-8]

  Phase 2, round 4 of the schedopt campaign: eight candidate \@[schedules]{schedule} proposed by Thompson
  sampling from a Gaussian process fitted to every prior evaluation, scored on the frozen objective (m\_star=92.5,
  k=400) over the shared search \@[seed]{seed} pool. Adaptivity lives between rounds only; within this
  manifest the eight \@{arms} are fixed before any of them runs.

  \end{llm}

  \end{intent}

  '
hypothesis: '\begin{hypothesis}[Each round improves on the incumbent, with shrinking returns]

  \label{schedopt-bo-r4-hypothesis}

  \begin{llm}[claude-opus-4-8]

  At least one candidate improves on the current incumbent''s crossing probability; the round-over-round
  gain shrinks as the surface is learned. Search-phase s-hat values are never reported as results.

  \end{llm}

  \end{hypothesis}

  '
seed: 1000
base_args:
- curriculum
- --with-replacement
- --dataset-sentence-count
- '48000'
- --eval-ref-alphas
- '1.4'
- --num-pairs
- '1000'
- --n-iterations
- '25'
- --no-dataset-cache
- --no-waypoint-checkpoints
- --no-plot
runs:
- label: r4_c0
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 4.9959:25,4.9951:25,4.9909:25,4.9787:25,4.9525:25,4.905:25,4.8277:25,4.7111:25,4.5444:25,4.316:25,4.0132:25,3.6223:25,3.1289:25,2.5175:25,1.7718:25,0.8747:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
  - '375'
  - '400'
- label: r4_c1
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 1.7748:25,1.7851:25,1.8009:25,1.821:25,1.845:25,1.8725:25,1.9031:25,1.9368:25,1.9733:25,2.0125:25,2.0543:25,2.0985:25,2.1451:25,2.1941:25,2.2453:25,2.2986:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
  - '375'
  - '400'
- label: r4_c2
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 4.2358:25,4.0116:25,3.7763:25,3.5344:25,3.2878:25,3.0374:25,2.7839:25,2.5278:25,2.2694:25,2.009:25,1.7467:25,1.4827:25,1.2172:25,0.9502:25,0.682:25,0.4124:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
  - '375'
  - '400'
- label: r4_c3
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 0.7126:25,0.8033:25,0.9098:25,1.0265:25,1.1509:25,1.2818:25,1.418:25,1.559:25,1.7043:25,1.8535:25,2.0062:25,2.1622:25,2.3212:25,2.4831:25,2.6477:25,2.8148:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
  - '375'
  - '400'
- label: r4_c4
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 4.9823:25,4.974:25,4.9643:25,4.9537:25,4.9423:25,4.9304:25,4.918:25,4.9052:25,4.8919:25,4.8784:25,4.8645:25,4.8503:25,4.8358:25,4.821:25,4.8061:25,4.7909:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
  - '375'
  - '400'
- label: r4_c5
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 1.4165:25,1.4214:25,1.4346:25,1.4585:25,1.4948:25,1.545:25,1.6106:25,1.6927:25,1.7926:25,1.9112:25,2.0496:25,2.2087:25,2.3894:25,2.5925:25,2.8189:25,3.0694:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
  - '375'
  - '400'
- label: r4_c6
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 2.7429:25,2.7423:25,2.7391:25,2.7306:25,2.7133:25,2.6833:25,2.6361:25,2.5669:25,2.4704:25,2.3411:25,2.1731:25,1.9602:25,1.6957:25,1.373:25,0.9849:25,0.524:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
  - '375'
  - '400'
- label: r4_c7
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 3.1128:25,3.0863:25,3.0348:25,2.9587:25,2.8585:25,2.7343:25,2.5864:25,2.4148:25,2.2199:25,2.0016:25,1.7601:25,1.4955:25,1.2078:25,0.8972:25,0.5636:25,0.2073:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
  - '375'
  - '400'
compare:
  metric: unseen_mismatch
objective:
  kind: crossing
  metric: unseen_mismatch
  m_star: 92.5
  k: 400
  w_smooth: 1
  w_dwell: 2
  source: experiments/schedopt/config.json
