name: schedopt_bo_r5
investigation: schedopt-v2
intent: "\\begin{intent}[Round 5 of the Bayesian search, at the re-frozen operating point]\n\\label{schedopt-bo-r5-intent}\n\
  \\begin{llm}[claude-fable-5]\nStep D of the schedopt re-freeze continuation (Phase 2b), round 5: eight\
  \ candidate \\@[schedules]{schedule} proposed by Thompson sampling from a Gaussian process re-fitted\
  \ to every prior evaluation re-scored at the re-frozen operating point v2 (m\\_star=95.5, k=350, dwell\
  \ 2) \u2014 the v1 objective saturated, and this round searches the speed-measuring point instead. Same\
  \ search \\@[seed]{seed} pool (common random numbers); adaptivity lives between rounds only; v1 and\
  \ v2 numbers are never merged.\n\\end{llm}\n\\end{intent}\n"
hypothesis: '\begin{hypothesis}[Each round improves on the incumbent, with shrinking returns]

  \label{schedopt-bo-r5-hypothesis}

  \begin{llm}[claude-opus-4-8]

  At least one candidate improves on the current incumbent''s crossing probability; the round-over-round
  gain shrinks as the surface is learned. Search-phase s-hat values are never reported as results.

  \end{llm}

  \end{hypothesis}

  '
seed: 1000
base_args:
- curriculum
- --with-replacement
- --dataset-sentence-count
- '48000'
- --eval-ref-alphas
- '1.4'
- --num-pairs
- '1000'
- --n-iterations
- '25'
- --no-dataset-cache
- --no-waypoint-checkpoints
- --no-plot
runs:
- label: r5_c0
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 1.8258:25,1.9279:25,2.0009:25,2.0615:25,2.1146:25,2.1627:25,2.2069:25,2.2482:25,2.2871:25,2.3239:25,2.3591:25,2.3927:25,2.4251:25,2.4563:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
- label: r5_c1
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 1.62:25,1.6391:25,1.6652:25,1.6963:25,1.7316:25,1.7706:25,1.8127:25,1.8578:25,1.9056:25,1.956:25,2.0087:25,2.0636:25,2.1207:25,2.1797:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
- label: r5_c2
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 2.1319:25,2.1328:25,2.1351:25,2.139:25,2.1446:25,2.1522:25,2.1618:25,2.1736:25,2.1877:25,2.2041:25,2.223:25,2.2445:25,2.2685:25,2.2952:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
- label: r5_c3
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 1.5502:25,1.557:25,1.5743:25,1.6043:25,1.6487:25,1.7091:25,1.7865:25,1.8821:25,1.997:25,2.1319:25,2.2877:25,2.4653:25,2.6654:25,2.8886:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
- label: r5_c4
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 1.5731:25,1.6048:25,1.6546:25,1.7191:25,1.7967:25,1.8863:25,1.9869:25,2.0979:25,2.2188:25,2.3492:25,2.4887:25,2.6369:25,2.7936:25,2.9585:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
- label: r5_c5
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 1.583:25,1.6855:25,1.788:25,1.8905:25,1.9929:25,2.0954:25,2.1979:25,2.3003:25,2.4028:25,2.5052:25,2.6077:25,2.7101:25,2.8125:25,2.915:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
- label: r5_c6
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 2.9863:25,3.013:25,3.0297:25,3.0425:25,3.0531:25,3.0624:25,3.0706:25,3.0781:25,3.085:25,3.0913:25,3.0973:25,3.1029:25,3.1082:25,3.1132:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
- label: r5_c7
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 2.6421:25,2.9758:25,3.1662:25,3.3062:25,3.4189:25,3.5143:25,3.5976:25,3.6719:25,3.7391:25,3.8007:25,3.8577:25,3.9107:25,3.9605:25,4.0074:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
compare:
  metric: unseen_mismatch
objective:
  kind: crossing
  metric: unseen_mismatch
  m_star: 95.5
  k: 350
  w_smooth: 1
  w_dwell: 2
  source: experiments/schedopt/config_v2.json
