name: schedopt_confirm_v2
investigation: schedopt-v2
intent: "\\begin{intent}[Confirmation at the re-frozen operating point]\n\\label{schedopt-confirm-v2-intent}\n\
  \\begin{llm}[claude-fable-5]\nStep F of the schedopt re-freeze continuation: the only reportable numbers\
  \ at the re-frozen operating point v2 (m\\_star=95.5, k=350, dwell 2), on 150 fresh held-out \\@{seeds}\
  \ never used by any selection. Five \\@{arms}: the Phase-4 modulation winner, the best smooth \\@{schedule}\
  \ (which is also the original campaign's winner), the ascending smooth carry-forward, the fixed-\\@[\u03B1\
  ]{alpha} baseline, and the off-family burst reference at its original 400-iteration realization. The\
  \ objective was re-frozen after the Phase-3 confirmation was seen; nothing here confirms the v1 result,\
  \ and v1 and v2 numbers are never merged. Adjudication follows the pre-registration committed before\
  \ the Phase-4 search (\\texttt{experiments/schedopt/phase4\\_prereg.md}).\n\\end{llm}\n\\end{intent}\n"
hypothesis: '\begin{hypothesis}[The tooth amplitude survives the holdout]

  \label{schedopt-confirm-v2-hypothesis}

  \begin{llm}[claude-fable-5]

  The modulated winner drops from its search value by the pre-registered winner''s-curse prediction of
  0.08 to 0.15 yet still clears the best smooth \@{schedule} by at least 0.10 in crossing probability,
  and the off-family burst reference lands nearer the modulated winner than the smooth arms.

  \end{llm}

  \end{hypothesis}

  '
seed: 9200
base_args:
- curriculum
- --with-replacement
- --dataset-sentence-count
- '48000'
- --eval-ref-alphas
- '1.4'
- --num-pairs
- '1000'
- --n-iterations
- '150'
- --no-dataset-cache
- --no-waypoint-checkpoints
- --no-plot
runs:
- label: phi4star
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 5:25,5:25,5:25,1.0634:25,1.0536:25,5:25,5:25,5:25,0.9043:25,0.8215:25,0.7122:25,3.084:25,2.1282:25,0.1755:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
- label: phi3star
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 3.1993:25,3.155:25,3.0753:25,2.963:25,2.8198:25,2.6469:25,2.4453:25,2.2158:25,1.9588:25,1.675:25,1.3649:25,1.0288:25,0.6671:25,0.2802:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
- label: ascend3
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 1.7754:25,1.7881:25,1.8076:25,1.8326:25,1.8623:25,1.8963:25,1.9343:25,1.976:25,2.0212:25,2.0698:25,2.1215:25,2.1763:25,2.2341:25,2.2947:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
- label: fixed_16
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 1.6:25,1.6:25,1.6:25,1.6:25,1.6:25,1.6:25,1.6:25,1.6:25,1.6:25,1.6:25,1.6:25,1.6:25,1.6:25,1.6:25
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
- label: burst_16
  args:
  - --schedule-shape
  - envelope
  - --total-iters
  - '400'
  - --n-stages
  - '16'
  - --env-start
  - '5.0'
  - --env-end
  - '1.2857'
  - --env-valley
  - '0.7'
  - --env-teeth
  - '3'
  - --env-duty
  - '0.5'
  - --waypoints
  - '25'
  - '50'
  - '75'
  - '100'
  - '125'
  - '150'
  - '175'
  - '200'
  - '225'
  - '250'
  - '275'
  - '300'
  - '325'
  - '350'
  - '375'
  - '400'
compare:
  metric: unseen_mismatch
objective:
  kind: crossing
  metric: unseen_mismatch
  m_star: 95.5
  k: 350
  w_smooth: 1
  w_dwell: 2
  source: experiments/schedopt/config_v2.json
