name: schedopt_v4
investigation: schedopt-v4
intent: '\begin{intent}[Searching for the fastest α schedule without a family]

  \label{schedopt-v4-intent}

  \begin{llm}[claude-opus-5]

  This round asks one question directly: which \@{schedule} of \@[α]{alpha}

  reaches good-enough generalization soonest, over \@{seeds}. It is built for

  speed of iteration rather than for defending an answer, so it carries no

  frozen operating point, no pre-registration, no gates, and no held-out

  discipline. Those belong to the confirmation that follows a winner, not to

  the search that finds one.


  The design choice that matters is what a candidate is allowed to be. Earlier

  rounds searched inside a parameterized family, and the family turned out to

  exclude the schedule that was already winning. Here a candidate is K blocks

  of level and duration over the first 300 \@{steps}, with K drawn rather than

  fixed, block boundaries free integers, and levels free in the interval 0 to

  5. Four hundred such \@[curricula]{schedule} were drawn at random and run

  down a successive-halving ladder over the \@{seed} budget, 6 to 20 to 60,

  promoting the fastest third at each step. Nothing about the shape is

  proposed by a model in this round; the draws are unbiased, and the point is

  to find out what the space contains before assuming anything about it.

  \end{llm}

  \end{intent}

  '
background: '\begin{background}[What the earlier rounds left open]

  \label{schedopt-v4-background}

  \begin{llm}[claude-opus-5]

  Three earlier rounds of this campaign each froze an objective and defended a

  winner, and each left the same thing open. Every \@{schedule} that has won

  here oscillated, and every family the search was run inside was chosen after

  the fact to contain those winners. A Sobol design over the smooth-envelope

  family converged on a nearly constant \@[α]{alpha} of about 1.9 while a

  better \@{schedule} sat outside the family altogether, which is evidence

  about the family rather than about the space.


  The instrument was rebuilt before this round for a separate reason. A

  crossing used to be confirmed by waiting for a second \@{waypoint} above the

  threshold, which cannot distinguish a lucky probe from a \@{model} that has

  not moved, and which charges \@{training-steps} to answer either question.

  It is now confirmed by re-measurement: the \@{weights} that produced the

  reading are held fixed and re-evaluated against three fresh sets of

  \@{minimal-pairs}. No number measured under the old rule is comparable to a

  number measured under the new one, so the reference \@{arms} were all

  re-run, and the earlier bar of 282.6 does not carry across.

  \end{llm}

  \end{background}

  '
hypothesis: '\begin{hypothesis}[Large excursions in α cross sooner than small ones]

  \label{schedopt-v4-hypothesis}

  \begin{llm}[claude-opus-5]

  A \@{schedule} that makes a few large excursions in \@[α]{alpha} reaches the

  threshold sooner than one that moves smoothly or not at all, and the size of

  the moves matters more than how many there are. The expectation is weak and

  is held loosely: it is a reading of which arms have won so far, not a

  mechanism, and the search is deliberately wide enough to refute it.

  \end{llm}

  \end{hypothesis}

  '
seed: 41000
base_args:
- curriculum
- --with-replacement
- --dataset-sentence-count
- '48000'
- --eval-ref-alphas
- '1.4'
- --num-pairs
- '1000'
- --stop-at-crossing
- '90.5'
- --stop-confirm
- '3'
- --no-waypoint-checkpoints
- --no-plot
runs:
- label: burst16_ext
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 5:25,5:25,5:25,0.7:25,0.7:25,3.143:25,3.143:25,3.143:25,0.7:25,0.7:25,0.7:25,1.286:25,1.286:25,0.7:25,0.7:25,0.7:25
  - --n-iterations
  - '20'
  - --waypoints
  - '100'
  - '110'
  - '120'
  - '130'
  - '140'
  - '150'
  - '160'
  - '170'
  - '180'
  - '190'
  - '200'
  - '210'
  - '220'
  - '230'
  - '240'
  - '250'
  - '260'
  - '270'
  - '280'
  - '290'
  - '300'
  - '310'
  - '320'
  - '330'
  - '340'
  - '350'
  - '360'
  - '370'
  - '380'
  - '390'
  - '400'
- label: fixed_0.8
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 0.8:400
  - --n-iterations
  - '20'
  - --waypoints
  - '100'
  - '110'
  - '120'
  - '130'
  - '140'
  - '150'
  - '160'
  - '170'
  - '180'
  - '190'
  - '200'
  - '210'
  - '220'
  - '230'
  - '240'
  - '250'
  - '260'
  - '270'
  - '280'
  - '290'
  - '300'
  - '310'
  - '320'
  - '330'
  - '340'
  - '350'
  - '360'
  - '370'
  - '380'
  - '390'
  - '400'
- label: fixed_0.9
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 0.9:400
  - --n-iterations
  - '20'
  - --waypoints
  - '100'
  - '110'
  - '120'
  - '130'
  - '140'
  - '150'
  - '160'
  - '170'
  - '180'
  - '190'
  - '200'
  - '210'
  - '220'
  - '230'
  - '240'
  - '250'
  - '260'
  - '270'
  - '280'
  - '290'
  - '300'
  - '310'
  - '320'
  - '330'
  - '340'
  - '350'
  - '360'
  - '370'
  - '380'
  - '390'
  - '400'
- label: fixed_1.0
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 1:400
  - --n-iterations
  - '20'
  - --waypoints
  - '100'
  - '110'
  - '120'
  - '130'
  - '140'
  - '150'
  - '160'
  - '170'
  - '180'
  - '190'
  - '200'
  - '210'
  - '220'
  - '230'
  - '240'
  - '250'
  - '260'
  - '270'
  - '280'
  - '290'
  - '300'
  - '310'
  - '320'
  - '330'
  - '340'
  - '350'
  - '360'
  - '370'
  - '380'
  - '390'
  - '400'
- label: fixed_1.1
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 1.1:400
  - --n-iterations
  - '20'
  - --waypoints
  - '100'
  - '110'
  - '120'
  - '130'
  - '140'
  - '150'
  - '160'
  - '170'
  - '180'
  - '190'
  - '200'
  - '210'
  - '220'
  - '230'
  - '240'
  - '250'
  - '260'
  - '270'
  - '280'
  - '290'
  - '300'
  - '310'
  - '320'
  - '330'
  - '340'
  - '350'
  - '360'
  - '370'
  - '380'
  - '390'
  - '400'
- label: fixed_1.2
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 1.2:400
  - --n-iterations
  - '20'
  - --waypoints
  - '100'
  - '110'
  - '120'
  - '130'
  - '140'
  - '150'
  - '160'
  - '170'
  - '180'
  - '190'
  - '200'
  - '210'
  - '220'
  - '230'
  - '240'
  - '250'
  - '260'
  - '270'
  - '280'
  - '290'
  - '300'
  - '310'
  - '320'
  - '330'
  - '340'
  - '350'
  - '360'
  - '370'
  - '380'
  - '390'
  - '400'
- label: fixed_1.3
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 1.3:400
  - --n-iterations
  - '20'
  - --waypoints
  - '100'
  - '110'
  - '120'
  - '130'
  - '140'
  - '150'
  - '160'
  - '170'
  - '180'
  - '190'
  - '200'
  - '210'
  - '220'
  - '230'
  - '240'
  - '250'
  - '260'
  - '270'
  - '280'
  - '290'
  - '300'
  - '310'
  - '320'
  - '330'
  - '340'
  - '350'
  - '360'
  - '370'
  - '380'
  - '390'
  - '400'
- label: fixed_1.4
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 1.4:400
  - --n-iterations
  - '20'
  - --waypoints
  - '100'
  - '110'
  - '120'
  - '130'
  - '140'
  - '150'
  - '160'
  - '170'
  - '180'
  - '190'
  - '200'
  - '210'
  - '220'
  - '230'
  - '240'
  - '250'
  - '260'
  - '270'
  - '280'
  - '290'
  - '300'
  - '310'
  - '320'
  - '330'
  - '340'
  - '350'
  - '360'
  - '370'
  - '380'
  - '390'
  - '400'
- label: fixed_1.5
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 1.5:400
  - --n-iterations
  - '20'
  - --waypoints
  - '100'
  - '110'
  - '120'
  - '130'
  - '140'
  - '150'
  - '160'
  - '170'
  - '180'
  - '190'
  - '200'
  - '210'
  - '220'
  - '230'
  - '240'
  - '250'
  - '260'
  - '270'
  - '280'
  - '290'
  - '300'
  - '310'
  - '320'
  - '330'
  - '340'
  - '350'
  - '360'
  - '370'
  - '380'
  - '390'
  - '400'
- label: fixed_1.6
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 1.6:400
  - --n-iterations
  - '20'
  - --waypoints
  - '100'
  - '110'
  - '120'
  - '130'
  - '140'
  - '150'
  - '160'
  - '170'
  - '180'
  - '190'
  - '200'
  - '210'
  - '220'
  - '230'
  - '240'
  - '250'
  - '260'
  - '270'
  - '280'
  - '290'
  - '300'
  - '310'
  - '320'
  - '330'
  - '340'
  - '350'
  - '360'
  - '370'
  - '380'
  - '390'
  - '400'
- label: fixed_1.7
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 1.7:400
  - --n-iterations
  - '20'
  - --waypoints
  - '100'
  - '110'
  - '120'
  - '130'
  - '140'
  - '150'
  - '160'
  - '170'
  - '180'
  - '190'
  - '200'
  - '210'
  - '220'
  - '230'
  - '240'
  - '250'
  - '260'
  - '270'
  - '280'
  - '290'
  - '300'
  - '310'
  - '320'
  - '330'
  - '340'
  - '350'
  - '360'
  - '370'
  - '380'
  - '390'
  - '400'
- label: fixed_1.8
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 1.8:400
  - --n-iterations
  - '20'
  - --waypoints
  - '100'
  - '110'
  - '120'
  - '130'
  - '140'
  - '150'
  - '160'
  - '170'
  - '180'
  - '190'
  - '200'
  - '210'
  - '220'
  - '230'
  - '240'
  - '250'
  - '260'
  - '270'
  - '280'
  - '290'
  - '300'
  - '310'
  - '320'
  - '330'
  - '340'
  - '350'
  - '360'
  - '370'
  - '380'
  - '390'
  - '400'
- label: fixed_1.9
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 1.9:400
  - --n-iterations
  - '20'
  - --waypoints
  - '100'
  - '110'
  - '120'
  - '130'
  - '140'
  - '150'
  - '160'
  - '170'
  - '180'
  - '190'
  - '200'
  - '210'
  - '220'
  - '230'
  - '240'
  - '250'
  - '260'
  - '270'
  - '280'
  - '290'
  - '300'
  - '310'
  - '320'
  - '330'
  - '340'
  - '350'
  - '360'
  - '370'
  - '380'
  - '390'
  - '400'
- label: fixed_2.0
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 2:400
  - --n-iterations
  - '20'
  - --waypoints
  - '100'
  - '110'
  - '120'
  - '130'
  - '140'
  - '150'
  - '160'
  - '170'
  - '180'
  - '190'
  - '200'
  - '210'
  - '220'
  - '230'
  - '240'
  - '250'
  - '260'
  - '270'
  - '280'
  - '290'
  - '300'
  - '310'
  - '320'
  - '330'
  - '340'
  - '350'
  - '360'
  - '370'
  - '380'
  - '390'
  - '400'
- label: fixed_2.1
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 2.1:400
  - --n-iterations
  - '20'
  - --waypoints
  - '100'
  - '110'
  - '120'
  - '130'
  - '140'
  - '150'
  - '160'
  - '170'
  - '180'
  - '190'
  - '200'
  - '210'
  - '220'
  - '230'
  - '240'
  - '250'
  - '260'
  - '270'
  - '280'
  - '290'
  - '300'
  - '310'
  - '320'
  - '330'
  - '340'
  - '350'
  - '360'
  - '370'
  - '380'
  - '390'
  - '400'
- label: fixed_2.2
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 2.2:400
  - --n-iterations
  - '20'
  - --waypoints
  - '100'
  - '110'
  - '120'
  - '130'
  - '140'
  - '150'
  - '160'
  - '170'
  - '180'
  - '190'
  - '200'
  - '210'
  - '220'
  - '230'
  - '240'
  - '250'
  - '260'
  - '270'
  - '280'
  - '290'
  - '300'
  - '310'
  - '320'
  - '330'
  - '340'
  - '350'
  - '360'
  - '370'
  - '380'
  - '390'
  - '400'
- label: fixed_2.3
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 2.3:400
  - --n-iterations
  - '20'
  - --waypoints
  - '100'
  - '110'
  - '120'
  - '130'
  - '140'
  - '150'
  - '160'
  - '170'
  - '180'
  - '190'
  - '200'
  - '210'
  - '220'
  - '230'
  - '240'
  - '250'
  - '260'
  - '270'
  - '280'
  - '290'
  - '300'
  - '310'
  - '320'
  - '330'
  - '340'
  - '350'
  - '360'
  - '370'
  - '380'
  - '390'
  - '400'
- label: fixed_2.4
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 2.4:400
  - --n-iterations
  - '20'
  - --waypoints
  - '100'
  - '110'
  - '120'
  - '130'
  - '140'
  - '150'
  - '160'
  - '170'
  - '180'
  - '190'
  - '200'
  - '210'
  - '220'
  - '230'
  - '240'
  - '250'
  - '260'
  - '270'
  - '280'
  - '290'
  - '300'
  - '310'
  - '320'
  - '330'
  - '340'
  - '350'
  - '360'
  - '370'
  - '380'
  - '390'
  - '400'
- label: fixed_2.5
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 2.5:400
  - --n-iterations
  - '20'
  - --waypoints
  - '100'
  - '110'
  - '120'
  - '130'
  - '140'
  - '150'
  - '160'
  - '170'
  - '180'
  - '190'
  - '200'
  - '210'
  - '220'
  - '230'
  - '240'
  - '250'
  - '260'
  - '270'
  - '280'
  - '290'
  - '300'
  - '310'
  - '320'
  - '330'
  - '340'
  - '350'
  - '360'
  - '370'
  - '380'
  - '390'
  - '400'
- label: fixed_2.6
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 2.6:400
  - --n-iterations
  - '20'
  - --waypoints
  - '100'
  - '110'
  - '120'
  - '130'
  - '140'
  - '150'
  - '160'
  - '170'
  - '180'
  - '190'
  - '200'
  - '210'
  - '220'
  - '230'
  - '240'
  - '250'
  - '260'
  - '270'
  - '280'
  - '290'
  - '300'
  - '310'
  - '320'
  - '330'
  - '340'
  - '350'
  - '360'
  - '370'
  - '380'
  - '390'
  - '400'
- label: fixed_2.7
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 2.7:400
  - --n-iterations
  - '20'
  - --waypoints
  - '100'
  - '110'
  - '120'
  - '130'
  - '140'
  - '150'
  - '160'
  - '170'
  - '180'
  - '190'
  - '200'
  - '210'
  - '220'
  - '230'
  - '240'
  - '250'
  - '260'
  - '270'
  - '280'
  - '290'
  - '300'
  - '310'
  - '320'
  - '330'
  - '340'
  - '350'
  - '360'
  - '370'
  - '380'
  - '390'
  - '400'
- label: fixed_2.8
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 2.8:400
  - --n-iterations
  - '20'
  - --waypoints
  - '100'
  - '110'
  - '120'
  - '130'
  - '140'
  - '150'
  - '160'
  - '170'
  - '180'
  - '190'
  - '200'
  - '210'
  - '220'
  - '230'
  - '240'
  - '250'
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  - '280'
  - '290'
  - '300'
  - '310'
  - '320'
  - '330'
  - '340'
  - '350'
  - '360'
  - '370'
  - '380'
  - '390'
  - '400'
- label: fixed_2.9
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 2.9:400
  - --n-iterations
  - '20'
  - --waypoints
  - '100'
  - '110'
  - '120'
  - '130'
  - '140'
  - '150'
  - '160'
  - '170'
  - '180'
  - '190'
  - '200'
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  - '220'
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  - '240'
  - '250'
  - '260'
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  - '280'
  - '290'
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  - '310'
  - '320'
  - '330'
  - '340'
  - '350'
  - '360'
  - '370'
  - '380'
  - '390'
  - '400'
- label: fixed_3.0
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 3:400
  - --n-iterations
  - '20'
  - --waypoints
  - '100'
  - '110'
  - '120'
  - '130'
  - '140'
  - '150'
  - '160'
  - '170'
  - '180'
  - '190'
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  - '320'
  - '330'
  - '340'
  - '350'
  - '360'
  - '370'
  - '380'
  - '390'
  - '400'
- label: free-028726eb
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 2.639:106,0.3656:28,2.617:93,0.4619:19,2.564:54,2.564:100
  - --n-iterations
  - '60'
  - --waypoints
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  - '350'
  - '360'
  - '370'
  - '380'
  - '390'
  - '400'
- label: free-152ceb4f
  args:
  - --schedule
  - 2.925:35,0.7198:13,3.771:91,0.03986:14,4.005:14,0.0941:17,3.373:67,0.3445:49,0.3445:100
  - --n-iterations
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compare:
  metric: unseen_mismatch
